The world is on the verge of a global food crisis, with a rising number of people experiencing hunger and food insecurity even before the COVID-19 pandemic. Global food supply systems have been partially undermined by a cascading combination of growing conflicts, climate-related shocks and widening inequalities. As a result, as many as 828 million people may have suffered from hunger in 2021. The outbreak of war in Ukraine poses an additional threat to food insecurity, with the potential to provoke a surge in levels of hunger and malnutrition, especially among the poorest and most vulnerable. With this global crisis looming, it is more urgent than ever to address its root causes. The international community must act now to avert a crippling food emergency and the social, economic and political upheaval that could follow.

Climate variability and extremes, conflict, economic shocks and growing inequalities are keeping the world off track in achieving zero hunger by 2030. Since 2014, the number of people going hungry and suffering from food insecurity has been on the rise. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated an already deteriorating situation, with about 150 million more people facing hunger in 2021 than in 2019. In other words, an estimated 1 in 10 people worldwide are suffering from hunger. In addition, nearly 1 in 3 (a staggering 2.3 billion people) were moderately or severely food insecure in 2021, meaning they lacked regular access to adequate food. This represents an increase of almost 350 million people since the beginning of the pandemic. The most worrisome increases were seen in sub-Saharan Africa, followed by Central and Southern Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

The unfolding crisis in Ukraine is yet another threat to food security. Ukraine and the Russian Federation are large producers and exporters of key food commodities, fertilizer, minerals and energy. Together they are considered the world’s breadbasket, supplying 30 per cent and 20 per cent of global wheat and maize exports, respectively, as well as 80 per cent of global exports of sunflower seed products. At least 50 countries import 30 per cent or more of their wheat from these two countries, with many African and LDCs importing more than 50 per cent. Ukraine and the Russian Federation are also leading exporters of fertilizers.

The conflict has caused a steep and sudden reduction in exports of grain, sunflower seeds and fertilizers. As a result, import-dependent countries are vulnerable to rising food costs and supply chain disruptions. Joint, coordinated activities and policy solutions are urgently needed to avert food shortages for the world’s poorest people and to reduce the impact of the conflict, as well as lingering consequences of the pandemic, on global food insecurity.

Small-scale farmers are the backbone of agriculture. Yet despite their importance in combating hunger, small-scale food producers are often among the most vulnerable groups in rural areas and within the agro-food system.

In low- and middle-income countries, the labour productivity of small farmers is less than $15 a day (constant 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP)), according to the latest available figures for 42 countries. The income of these small-scale producers continues to lag behind those of their larger-scale counterparts, with more pronounced differences in higher-income countries. In most countries with available data, the average annual income from agriculture of small-scale farmers is under $2,000 (constant 2011 PPP). This is less than half that of large-scale producers, in three quarters of countries for which data are available. Small-scale farmers who are women are further disadvantaged. Although the productivity of food production units headed by men and women is similar, the average annual income of units headed by women is between 50 per cent and 70 per cent that of men, in half the countries with available data.